Don’t Get Black Friday FOMO: For Many Brands, Q5 Matters More

We are firmly in the midst of the holiday advertising season. While Black Friday and Cyber Monday traditionally kick off consumers’ holiday shopping sprees on November 29, ad campaigns promoting sales begin earlier and earlier each year. Brands wrapped their Black Friday creative and media plans long ago, and for all intents and purposes, much of the most prized TV inventory is sold. With higher demand for ad slots, the cost of remaining inventory grows upward while clearance rates trend downward in the weeks prior to the holiday, as can be seen in the graph below. Brands playing in the remnant market who did not book advanced via Non-preemptible (NPE) buys are forced to factor this in.

The mad rush for inventory ahead of Black Friday and the subsequent holiday shopping is because this is the most critical time for many brands to reach consumers, drive purchases, and earn the majority of their annual revenue. However, a Q4 or Black Friday TV campaign may not be the right play for every brand, and marketers who didn’t run one or still want to make a final push before the year closes can look to the so-called “Q5” period as a golden opportunity.

Extend the holiday cheer into Q5

In many ways, Q5 can be the most wonderful time of the year for advertisers. Q5 represents the down period that extends from directly before Christmas up to New Year’s. This is a time on the TV advertising calendar when there are usually plenty of efficient media deals to be had as the market is far less competitive and consumers’ spending habits are still very high. For some nimble (and ambitious) brands, running a Q5 TV campaign may just be the right strategy for achieving end-of-year goals.

Q5 starts around December 22 (when shipping deadlines have passed), but we expect to see pricing drops starting the week of December 18th, and into the week of January 1st. With fewer advertisers, inventory pricing looks different, creating opportunities for savvy advertisers.  Tatari’s historical averages show a significant dip in CPMs in Q5 compared to the rest of Q4/Q1, which is driven by advertisers pulling back spend after the holidays and cable viewership gains.

These steep discounts offer brands the opportunity to test premium programming while reaching incremental audiences. 

We also see that advertising performance is more efficient during this time. Despite demand decreases for “gift-giving” products, Tatari clients have seen a ~13% performance improvement for the weeks of Q5 compared to Q4 & Q1.

Tis’ the season to watch TV

During the holiday season, TV viewership actually increases on certain networks. Thanks to a mix of live sports and holiday programming, advertisers can reach consumers who are home for the holidays and glued to their televisions. 

When they’re not watching Ralphie shoot his eye out or Kevin surviving the holidays home alone, TV viewers are feverishly watching live sports - notably the NFL and NCAA. With both the professional and college football playoffs on the horizon, as well as the NBA and NCAA basketball season in full swing, sports networks and ABC see significant gains compared to the rest of Q4/Q1. The expanded NCAA playoffs (now 12 teams versus 4), and the realignment of the regional conferences has broadened viewing options, resulting in a noticeable increase in fan interest in college football. ABC’s Saturday Night Football is up +123% YoY. 

Entertainment networks and business focused networks (CNBC World, Cheddar News) also see an increase in viewing. This signals a strong opportunity to introduce/reintroduce test networks into media plans in the post-holiday timeframe.

Who’s ready for a holly jolly Q5?

The truth is that any advertiser can benefit from Q5 because it’s the perfect time for testing TV advertising. This holds true for digitally-native brands that are dabbling in TV for the first time, as well as brands that want to test more expensive reach buys without compromising on performance. Affordable inventory is always appealing for running tests. Doing these tests at the very end of the year also lets brands spend any surplus budget, and then use the results to determine if they need to adjust investment levels in 2024.

Certain categories can also benefit greatly, especially health and wellness. Many consumers don’t begin new health regimens immediately before the holiday rush. Instead, they kick these off to start the new year.

For Veyl, the holding company behind the health brands L‘EvateYou, Dr. Kellyann, and NatureM.D., Black Friday and Q4 are actually lower seasonal moments. “We’re a health brand, and most people don’t feel like getting into the best shape of their lives two weeks before Thanksgiving,” said Joshua Kim, Head of Growth at Veyl.

For plant-based meal delivery service Daily Harvest, Black Friday and Q4 are also not their peak shopping moments due to significant travel and holiday eating. Courtney Kociemba, VP of Marketing at Daily Harvest, said, "We see our most significant spike in sales in Q5 and Q1. The new year, new me mentality is when people are more likely to want to get healthier, and we are fortunate to take advantage of better media pricing in Q5."

Nimble brands stand to light up the holidays 

It’s not only health and wellness brands that can find success advertising in Q5. The combination of an inventory surplus, efficient pricing, and consumers’ desire to spend big presents a valuable opportunity that spans across verticals. Be sure to keep these tips in mind when planning for Q5:

• Experiment on new networks and streaming platforms while viewership is up.

• Test Tier 1 and high profile, premium programming that might normally be out of reach other times of the year.

• Set aside a dedicated budget for “fire sale” opportunities that might become available during the holidays.

• Be agile and have creative ready to go given the short window needed to launch. Tatari recommends preliminary creative be ready for S&P review by December 3rd and last call to refine creative by December 19.

While it may not make sense to tie Q5 campaigns directly to holiday sales or promotions, brands willing to act quickly and buy inventory during this period can extend the holiday momentum, stand out, and drive extra revenue. Q5 is your chance to wrap up the year on a high note.